Since the fires on Black Saturday we have heard a lot more about the Fire Danger Index or FDI so we thought we’d take a look at what the FDI is all about and what it means to community preparations and decisions about bushfire risk.
There are actually two ratings. There is the FFDI – Forest Fire Danger Index and the GFDI or Grass Fire Danger Index. For the sake of simplicity (and it really is all quite complicated) here we will focus on the FFDI
The Forest Fire Danger Index was developed by A.G. McArthur a CSIRO scientist. McArthur developed a tool to give a figure for a combination of factors, which influence fire behaviour. These factors are:
- Temperature
- Humidity
- Wind speed
- Rain fall
- Drought factor
It is usually calculated using a standard fuel load.
The FFDI gives an overall rating but it can also can be broken down into a prediction of flame height, spotting distance and rate of spread. The FFDI varies from place to place and for different times of the day. The FFDI will only be as accurate as the weather predictions put into the calculation.
The original FFDI had a maximum rating of 100. McArthur used the 1939 Victorian bushfires which killed 71 people and burned more than a million acres to set this as the maximum, as he considered these fires to have occurred under the worst conditions possible.
In our trawling of the information available about the FFDI we were either blinded by the science of it all, or confused by the exceptions and differences of opinions about the index. Suffice to say, as a society we are learning all the time and the FFDI is not infallible and seems to be continually tested and tweaked by a whole array of researchers. There is also a recent indicating that wind is THE most significant factor contributing to bushfire behaviour, followed by relative humidity and then temperature.
Some points to note:
- At around FFDI 40 the CFA in Victoria anyway, declares a Code Purple day. This is a day one step short of a Total Fire Ban day. It is still a bad day but for a variety of reasons has not been declared a TFB. It is not publically announced but fire fighters are notified via their pagers.
- At around FFDI 50, after consulting with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the CFA in Victoria declares a day of Total Fire Ban.
- Bushfire CRC Research paper in December 2005 found that nearly all fires where more than 40 houses were destroyed, the FFDI was over 70. (Link: http://bushfirecrc.com/search/downloads/_%20FEF_D1i-StringencyAS3959_final.pdf
So to get some perspective on the effect of the FDI and what it means for community:
- January 1939 FFDI 100 –Victoria - 71 people died, 650 buildings destroyed
- 7 February 1967 FFDI 100– Tasmania – 62 people died, 1300 homes lost.
- 16 February, 1983 FFDI 120 – South Australia and Victoria – 75 people died, 3700 buildings damaged or destroyed.
- December 93 – Jan 94 FFDI 96 - NSW and QLD, 4 people died, 206 homes burnt.
- January 1997 FFDI 50 –Dandenong Ranges, Victoria, 3 people died, 41 houses, destroyed, 400 hectares burnt.
- January 2003 -FFDI 102 – Canberra– 3 people died, 543 houses lost.
- 7 February 2009 FFDI 189 – Victoria – 173 people died and 2000 buildings lost.